- cross-posted to:
- world@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- world@lemmy.world
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.zip/post/45823859
In Gallup’s most recent poll of Ukraine — conducted in early July — 69% say they favor a negotiated end to the war as soon as possible, compared with 24% who support continuing to fight until victory.
This marks a nearly complete reversal from public opinion in 2022, when 73% favored Ukraine fighting until victory and 22% preferred that Ukraine seek a negotiated end as soon as possible.
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What kind of negotiated end?
Would it be Russia’s initial demands, say:
- Ukraine (and perhaps US, UK, and EU) recognize Russian sovereignty the 4 oblasts and Crimea?
- demilitarization of Ukraine—say reduce the size of their military to <20%?
- “de-nazification”—say Zelenskyy resigns and never hold office again, dissolve AB, and have parliamentary elections with none of the incumbents, and banned parties restored.
- never to join NATO, ally with a NATO-member (at least not without Russian permission), and perhaps not join EU?
Would a majority Ukrainians be okay with that? Would 25% of them be okay with that?
Yeah, and let us not forget the abducted children (just read the post prior to that one) and the other war crimes. Will those responsible be punished?
(This may be a bit off-topic, but I had a discussion yesterday in another thread on the number of propaganda posts that has allegedly increased in recent months here on Lemmy, and low-quality posts/comments that seems to follow an authoritarian disinformation and misinformation playbook. I feel somehow the linked article is one of these posts. There are many “poll says”, “survey says”, “politician X says”, articles followed by highly biased and often misleading and very brief content. Maybe I am wrong, I am not here for too long and just another random guy on the web, but this is my impression.)
That’s exactly the point. It’s understandable that people want an end to the war. And now they are willing to give concessions. But Putin still wants political control over Ukraine. One way or another. Ukrainians may be willing to give up territory, but that won’t be enough for Putin. If anything the change in ukranian attitude will embolden him. So I don’t see much room for negotiations.
Sounds about what I’d expect them to demand.
E: Seems like it’s already happening. Maybe it would be limited to just territory and no-NATO? I guess we’ll see when Mango Mussolini spills the beans.
As tough as Trump is on Netanyahu, I expect him to be even tougher on Putin.
At the same time, Ukrainians are “skeptical of seeing an end to active fighting soon.” They didn’t ask what the negotiation results should be.
You will certainly get very different results over time in such surveys, especially when the situation changes quickly (for example, that “Ukrainians sour on Washington” is something I would have predicted, because it is a safe bet that Ukrainians are not alone here), and in addition such political polling faces numerous hurdles that can skew results (e.g., non-response bias, sampling errors).
This headline is another one followed by a weak content whose only purpose is to convey a certain narrative imo. Maybe it is me, but I feel such posts increase here of late.
Isn’t it to be expected that, as a war goes on, people get exhausted and start to want out?
The point should be whether Ukraine or Russia will want out first, and that doesn’t depend only on public opinion.
