Sweeping reforms are set to significantly increase the tax burden carried by many Russian citizens. Although officials have promised not to raise core taxes further, they are increasing fines, excise duties and the cost of state services. It is clear that as long as the war drags on, Russians’ wallets will increasingly be treated as the “new oil.” Yet despite expectations of trillions of rubles in extra revenue, the country’s budget deficit continues to grow — and in July, the Finance Ministry even defaulted on a payment.

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In January, Russia shifted its personal income tax (PIT) structure from a two-bracket system to a five-tier scale. Economists at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics (HSE) recently estimated that the shift alone cut the growth of real disposable incomes by 0.4% in 2025. Combined with a hike in consumption charges, the increase in taxation is expected to curtail household spending and, in turn, exert downward pressure on overall GDP, warn the authors of the HSE report.

Businesses are also paying more: profit tax jumped from 20% to 25%, mineral extraction levies rose for metals and fertilizer producers, and small firms on simplified tax regimes now have to pay VAT. Altogether, the Finance Ministry projects the state will bring in an extra 2.6 trillion rubles this year, including 1.6 trillion ($20.0 billion) from profit tax and 533 billion ($6.7 billion) from personal income tax, and 17 trillion ($212.5 billion) over five years.

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Despite revenue growth from some sources, other tax inflows are falling. With global oil prices low, mineral extraction tax receipts dropped 18% compared with a relatively strong 2024. Overall, revenues are only at the levels of 2023 — which are comparable to those of prewar 2021. Combined with rising government spending and early prepayments for state contracts, the deficit has exceeded initial targets, reaching 3.7 trillion rubles ($46.2 billion), or 1.7% of GDP — far above the 1 trillion rubles ($12.5 billion), or 0.5% of GDP, written into the original budget law. Amendments had to be passed, but the revised ceiling has almost already been reached.

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Higher state duties on filing court cases were designed to meet two goals at once: raising revenue and reducing pressure on the judicial system. On average, [state] fees are rising by a factor of between ten and fifteen, and in some cases more than fiftyfold. The amendments have already been passed: for example, filing a property claim will now cost 4,000 rubles ($50) instead of 400 ($5). Filing an appeal now costs 3,000 rubles ($37), up from 150 ($2). For economic disputes, the fee rises from 300 ($4) to 10,000 rubles ($125) for individuals and from 2,000 ($25) to 60,000 rubles ($750) for legal entities.

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